Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. ET was an important deadline, but for many men’s college basketball programs it provided a lifeline. That’s because many of the underclassmen who had entered their names into the NBA Draft withdrew and announced their intentions to return to school. Not all of them came back, of course, leaving their former schools diminished. Either way, the sound of the clock striking midnight was a moment of clarity. In a sport beset by indecision and instability, today we have a great deal more certainty about who will be playing for whom when the 2022-23 season tips off.
That makes this the ideal time to update my preseason top 25. I first published my way-too-early edition on April 5, just a few hours after Kansas completed its comeback over North Carolina in the NCAA championship game. I made my guesses as to who would be departing, who would be returning, and who would be incoming. That last category has also undergone a major makeover courtesy of the ubiquitous transfer portal. So there was much to re-assess for this latest edition.
Here, then, is the new-look take on how things will shape up about five months hence. The new season will be here before we know it!
1. Kentucky
Last time: 2
When I did my way-too-early top 25 two months ago, I listed freshman forward Shaedon Sharpe among the anticipated departures for Kentucky (he went into the NBA Draft as expected), and last season’s national player of the year, 6-9 senior center Oscar Tshiebwe, was projected to return (as he did). Ditto for 6-9 senior forward Jacob Toppin, who withdrew from the draft to further fortify Kentucky’s veteran frontcourt. John Calipari has since added Antonio Reeves, a 6-6 junior guard who averaged 20.1 ponts per game last season at Illinois State, to go along with two freshman McDonald’s All-Americans, 6–4 guard Cason Wallace and 6-6 wing Chris Livingston. And that painful first-round loss to Saint Peter’s is going to serve as a powerful motivator.
2. North Carolina
Last time: 4
I ranked the Tar Heels fourth in April on the assumption that three of their starters, R.J. Davis, Caleb Love and Armando Bacot, would return. The projected lineup got even stronger a week later when 6-8 senior forward Leaky Black, the team’s Glue Guy, opted to return for his super senior season. Hubert Davis also signed a solid three-man recruiting class, and he has two players, 6-8 junior forward Puff Johnson and 6-6 sophomore guard Dontrez Styles, who should have more opportunities for playing time next season.
3. Gonzaga
Last time: 10
Gonzaga fans got a double dose of good news on Wednesday when 6-10 senior forward Drew Timme and 6-7 junior guard Julian Strawther withdrew their names from the NBA Draft and announced they would return to Spokane. Both those players were projected as returnees in the previous installment of my Top 25. However, Rasir Bolton, a 6-3 senior who averaged 11.2 points on 46 percent 3-point shooting last season after transferring from Iowa State, made the surprising announcement on Tuesday that he is coming back for a super senior season. Mark Few also landed a promising player out of the transfer portal in 6-11 center Efton Reid, who averaged 6.3 points and 4.3 rebounds as a freshman at LSU. When the 2022-23 tips off, the Zags will be right back in the mix for a title chase.
I’m back
— drew timme (@drewtimme2) June 2, 2022
4. Houston
Last time: 6
The Cougars breathed a huge sigh of relief on Wednesday when 6-1 senior guard Marcus Sasser, who was averaging 17.7 points when he suffered a season-ending foot injury in December, elected to withdraw from the draft and return to school. Sasser was previously projected to return along with another talented guard whose season was cut short, 6-5 junior Tramon Mark. Kelvin Sampson is also adding a pair of elite freshmen in 6-8 forward Jarace Walker and 6-7 forward Terrance Arceneaux.
5. Duke
Last time: 5
Jon Scheyer added a pair of transfers in 6-10 senior center Ryan Young (Northwestern) and 6-6 senior forward Kale Catchings (Harvard), who will both provide depth and boost the team’s overall GPA. That aside, the Blue Devils will be who we thought they would. That means 6-1 junior point guard Jeremy Roach leading a star-studded recruiting class that features 7-1 center Dereck Lively, 6-11 forward Kyle Filipowski and 6-6 guard Dariq Whitehead. Duke would have moved up if 6-4 guard Trevor Keels had elected to return, but he announced on Wednesday that he is remaining in the draft.
6. UCLA
Last time: 1
The Bruins lost several players who were listed as returnees in my previous rankings, most notably 6-6 junior guard Johnny Juzang. He was the Bruins’ leading scorer the last two seasons, and he elected to remain in the draft even though there is a chance he won’t be picked. Freshman forward Peyton Watson, who would have been primed for a breakout sophomore season, also left for the draft, while oft-injured senior center Cody Riley opted not to use his extra year of eligibility. Senior guard Jules Bernard, who was previously listed as a projected departure, decided on Wednesday to remain in the draft as well.
7. Kansas
Last time: 7
Bill Self had a really good March and April, and he added another pair of victories when 6-8 junior forward Jalen Wilson and 6-6 senior guard Kevin McCullar withdrew from the draft. Wilson was projected to return in my April rankings, but McCullar was subsequently added following his transfer from Texas Tech, where he averaged 10.1 points and 4.6 rebounds last season. McCullar’s arrival should help offset the unexpected loss of 6-6 senior guard Christian Braun to the NBA. It’s also worth noting that after a couple of down years in recruiting, Self is bringing in three McDonald’s All-Americans next season.
8. Texas
Last time: 16
Texas improved its lot considerably since April. Two players who were listed as likely departures, 6-2 senior guard Marcus Carr and 6-6 senior forward Timmy Allen, both elected to return for a super senior season. In addition, Chris Beard signed former Iowa State point guard Tyrese Hunter out of the portal. As a freshman, the 6-0 Hunter averaged 11.0 points and 4.9 assists and was named the Big 12’s freshman of the year. The Longhorns are also bringing in a pair of McDonald’s All-Americans in 6-7 forward Dillon Mitchell and 6-3 guard Arterio Morris.
9. Arkansas
Last time: 3
It wasn’t a shock that 6-2 senior guard J.D. Notae, who was already a fifth-year senior, opted to stay in the draft, but losing All-Glue forward Jaylin Williams was a surprise. Eric Musselman has always made great use of the transfer portal, and he used it to bring in five new players, including Ricky Council IV, a 6-6 guard from Wichita State who averaged 12.0 points as a freshman; the Mitchell brothers (Makhel and Makhi), who came from Rhode Island; and 6-9 senior forward Jalen Graham, who averaged 9.9 points and 4.6 rebounds at Arizona State. Musselman is also bringing in three McDonald’s All-Americans among the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class, but it won’t be easy replacing the experience Notae and Williams would have brought.
Point guard Ryan Nembhard leads a strong returning core for Creighton. (Steven Branscombe / USA Today)
10. Creighton
Last time: 11
Creighton made a huge splash on May 3 when Baylor Scheierman, a 6-6 guard who averaged 16.2 points and 4.5 assists on 46.9 percent 3-point shooting as a junior for South Dakota State last season, committed to Greg McDermott out of the transfer portal. The news was even better (albeit much quieter) last week when Scheierman withdrew from the draft. That’s a huge addition for a program that won 23 games last season but suffered from inexperience and poor perimeter shooting. Scheierman will round out a lineup that includes four returning starters, most notably 6-foot point guard Ryan Nembhard, last season’s Big East freshman of the year.
11. Baylor
Last time: 12
Matthew Mayer’s decision to transfer was a surprise, but it might also be a case of addition by subtraction. The 6-9 senior forward never quite showed the moxie to match his skills, and his departure cleared the way for Scott Drew to add a pair of high-quality transfers in 6-7 junior forward Jalen Bridges (West Virginia) and 6-8 junior forward Caleb Lohner (BYU). There had also been some chatter that 6-1 sophomore guard LJ Cryer might be on the move, but he will return to form a formidable backcourt with 6-3 senior Adam Flagler, who tested the draft waters but withdrew, and 6-4 freshman Keyonte George.
12. Indiana
Last time: NR
When Trayce Jackson-Davis came to Indiana as a freshman, most people thought he would stay just one or two years. On May 20, Jackson-Davis decided to withdraw from the draft and return to Bloomington for his senior season. That means Indiana will return four starters from the team that won its NCAA Tournament First Four game over Wyoming before losing to Saint Mary’s. Mike Woodson is also bringing in three freshmen who were ranked in the top 100 in the 247Sports Composite — 6-5 guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-8 forward Malik Reneau and 6-8 forward Kaleb Banks.
13. Alabama
Last time: 13
Nate Oats got one of the top transfers out of the portal in 6-1 guard Mark Sears, who averaged 19.6 points and 4.1 assists last season as a sophomore at Ohio. That should help make up for the losses of 6-3 freshman JD Davison, 6-3 junior Jaden Shackelford and 6-6 senior Keon Ellis. Juwan Gary, a 6-6 sophomore last season, was initially projected to return, but he transferred to Nebraska. The other big question for the Tide is how long it takes for 6-1 senior point guard Jahvon Quinerly to recover from the ACL injury he sustained in the NCAA Tournament first-round loss to Notre Dame.
Mike Miles’ return is one of many reasons to be excited about TCU in 2022-23. (Kirby Lee / USA Today)
14. Oregon
Last time: 19
I listed 6-5 senior guard Will Richardson, last season’s leading scorer, among the Ducks’ expected departures in my previous ranking, but allowed that he was considering a return for a super senior season. Richardson tested the NBA Draft waters, and on Wednesday he announced that he was coming back to Eugene. Quincy Guerrier, a 6-8 senior forward, also withdrew from the draft earlier this week. Besides bringing in 7-foot freshman center Kel’el Ware, a McDonald’s All-American, and the nation’s leading junior college scorer in 6-5 junior Tyrone Williams, Dana Altman also landed two re-enforcements out of the transfer portal in 6-4 junior guard Jermaine Cousinard, who was South Carolina’s second-leading scorer last season at 12.0 points per game, and 6-2 junior guard Keeshawn Barthelemy, who averaged 11.1 points and 2.4 assists at Colorado.
15. TCU
Last time: 25
The Horned Frogs got a huge boost when Mike Miles, the 6-2 guard who led the team in scoring at 15.4 points per game, elected to withdraw from the draft and return for his junior season. On Monday, former Oklahoma State guard Rondel Walker, a 6-4 junior guard, decided to transfer in. Later in the day, 6-3 senior guard Damion Baugh, who had previously indicated he was leaving school to turn pro, changed his mind and announced his intent to return. That means TCU is bringing back the top six players from the team that won 21 games and lost in overtime to Arizona in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
16. Villanova
Last time: 14
From a player perspective, the Wildcats’ offseason has gone about as expected. Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels graduated, but three other starters plus sixth man Eric Dixon are returning. The change at the top — Kyle Neptune stepping in as head coach to replace the retiring Jay Wright — was a total shock, and it makes the Cats less of a sure bet heading into the season. Another big question is whether 6-4 senior guard Justin Moore, last year’s second-leading scorer, will make it back onto the court (and if so, how effective he’ll be) after rupturing his Achilles tendon in the Elite Eight.
17. Dayton
Last time: 17
There has been no substantive change over the last two months for the Flyers, who will return all five starters from the youngest team in the country. Dayton, which went 24-11 with wins over Kansas and Miami, was the first team left out of the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday. Anthony Grant is also adding promising freshman forward Mike Sharavjants, who was ranked No. 87 in the Class of 2022 in the 247Sports Composite.
18. Auburn
Last time: 20
It’s no surprise that Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler left for the NBA, but Bruce Pearl pulled off a coup by signing Morehead State forward Johni Broome out of the transfer portal. The 6-10 junior center averaged 16.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.9 blocks per game last season. The Tigers are also bringing back four of their top six scorers, and Pearl is bringing in a pair of elite freshmen in 6-10 forward Yohan Traore and 6-6 wing Chance Westry.
19. Tennessee
Last time: 24
The Volunteers were hit hard as 6-4 senior guard Victor Bailey, 6-10 freshman forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and 6-6 sophomore guard Justin Powell all transferred out. But Rick Barnes added a big-time freshman in Julian Phillips, a 6-8 forward from Missouri who was ranked No. 12 in the Class of 2022 in the 247 Composite. As of now, Barnes only has one transfer coming into the program, Tyreke Key, who averaged 17.2 points and 5.3 rebounds as a senior at Indiana State. That will put even more pressure on 5-9 point guard Zakai Zeigler to take a big step forward as a sophomore, and for 6-6 senior guard Josiah-Jordan James to blossom into a more consistent offensive threat.
20. Arizona
Last time: 8
We all knew that 6-7 junior guard Bennedict Mathurin was NBA-bound, but two other Wildcats, 7-1 senior center Christian Koloko and 6-7 junior guard Dalen Terry, were close enough that they were listed in my previous ranking as returnees. Both players, however, elected to remain in the draft. Tommy Lloyd could still add a transfer or two in the coming weeks, but he did tap into his usual international pipeline to sign Henri Veesaar, a well-regarded 7-0 forward from Estonia.
21. Ohio State
Last time: 21
The Buckeyes were projected to lose E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham to the draft as well as three other seniors, but they fortified themselves nicely by bringing in three quality transfers — Tanner Holden, a 6-6 senior who averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 rebounds at Wright State; Isaac Likekele, a 6-5 super senior who was a four-year starter at Oklahoma State; and Sean McNeil, a 6-3 senior guard who was West Virginia’s second-leading scorer at 12.2 points per game. Given the losses in the frontcourt, it will be critical for 6-7 senior forward Justice Sueing to regain his form after missing all of last season with a sports hernia.
22. Michigan
Last time: 9
The Wolverines got a double dose of bad news on Wednesday as 6-8 freshman forward Caleb Houstan and 6-11 sophomore forward Moussa Diabate both elected to remain in the draft. Both were projected as returnees in my original rankings, so their departures knocked the Wolverines down several spots, but Michigan will benefit from the addition of Jaelin Llewellyn, a 6-2 senior who averaged 15.7 points an 4.1 rebounds for Princeton last season. It was surprising that 6-1 freshman Frankie Collins opted to transfer to Arizona State considering he was in line to become the Wolverines’ starting point guard next season. The Wolverines will welcome back 7-1 junior center Hunter Dickinson, who will once again be one of the top centers in the country.
San Diego State got a big boost with the return of Mountain West defensive player of the year Nathan Mensah. (Brian Losness / USA Today)
23. San Diego State
Last time: 22
The Aztecs got a huge break last week when Nathan Mensah, the 6-10 center who was the Mountain West’s defensive player of the year, decided to return for a super senior season. Matt Bradley, the 6-4 senior transfer from Cal who led the team in scoring at 16.9 points per game, chose that same option before the season ended. Brian Dutcher has also since added a pair of transfers in 5-10 junior guard Darrion Trammell (Seattle) and 6-6 sophomore forward Micah Parrish (Oakland).
24. Michigan State
Last time: 18
Max Christie was previously listed as a returnee after averaging 9.3 points on 38.2 percent shooting as a freshman, but he elected to remain in the draft. Julius Marble, a 6-9 junior forward, transferred to Texas A&M. Conversely, 6-9 forward Joey Hauser was listed as a departure, and he has decided to return for a super senior season. That means Tom Izzo should have another NCAA Tournament-caliber team in East Lansing, led by the returning backcourt of 6-3 junior A.J. Hoggard and 6-foot senior Tyson Walker.
25. Purdue
Last time: 23
At a time when college hoops seems ever more fixated on the transfer portal, Purdue remains a beacon of stability. Once again, Matt Painter is sticking with the players he recruited, which is why the Boilermakers are poised to keep winning despite the loss of 6-4 sophomore guard Jaden Ivey to the NBA and two seniors to graduation. (Two other seniors, Eric Hunter and Isaiah Thompson, transferred to Butler and Florida Gulf Coast, respectively.) It will be interesting to see how 7-4 junior Zach Edey performs without having to share minutes at center with Trevion Williams. Painter also has high hopes for two sophomore forwards who redshirted last season with injuries, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Brian Waddell.
(Top photo of Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe: Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)